1899-New Series From The Creators of “Dark.”

[Analyzer]

I was watching some news on the cancellation yesterday, & the one thing that kept getting brought up, was the way Netflix supposedly decides whether to keep or axe a show, & the consensus is that it's based on new subscribers.

It's not hours watched, ratings, reviews, or the things that usually gauge the popularity of a show in a particular fan base. The idea is a show's fate is determined by whether or not there is an influx of new subscribers around the release of a show, & then those new customers watch the particular show. I get it, but it does kind of piss me off cause it reminds me of cellular companies & satellite providers that will bend over backwards to cater to a new customer, but barely acknowledge the loyalty of people that have been with them for years.

Actually, in things I had read, it seemed like the formula was more based on "started" and "finished" a series percentages

Anything lower than a 50% completion rate was on the chopping block almost regardless of how many started watching it

i.e. if less than half the viewers who starting watching the first episode and finished watching all the episodes is 50% or more, then it was considered for a second season

The Hidden Reason Netflix Keeps Cancelling Shows Like ‘1899’

“It’s 70% gut and 30% data…Most of it is informed hunches and intuition. Data either reinforces your worst notion or it just supports what you want to do either way.”

www.forbes.com

The secret Netflix metric that got '1899' canceled — and could ruin TV forever

There’s a secret metric Netflix doesn’t reveal, but which helps explain exactly why a show like '1899' got canceled. And it may prove Netflix’s biggest critics right about one particular issue.

www.inverse.com

Some numbers from earlier this year:

• Heartstopper had a 73% completion rate and was renewed
• The Lincoln Lawyer had a 56% completion rate and was renewed
• Resident Evil spent a good amount of time at #1, but only had a 45% completion rate and was cancelled.
• First Kill had a 44% completion rate and was cancelled.
• Squid Game had a sky-high completion rate of 87% and was obviously renewed.
• Arcane had a 60% completion rate and was renewed
• The Irregulars had a 41% completion rate and was cancelled
• Love Death and Robots had a 67% completion rate and was renewed
• Pieces of Her and Inventing Anna had 54% and 42% completion rates respectively, but both were limited series, so renewal didn’t matter.

And then, fast-forwarding to now, 1899 reportedly had a dismal 32% completion rate, according to third party sources. And it was cancelled.

I am sure that may combine with other stats, but that is what seemed to be weighted the most

It is why a lot of shows that pop into the Top 10 wind up getting cancelled. People start watching them the first few weeks but "never" finish the series

There are also a lot of people who may not finish watching or even start watching until there are at least two seasons thanks to the seeming predilection for cancelling popular shows

The problem is what kind of time frame are they talking?

I know for example with my family viewing I may start a series, then decide my wife and daughter may like this as well and stop watching until they catch up.
Sometime it is tough getting us all at the same time to watch so we may go weeks or even months before finishing a series. We tend to breeze through 3 or 4 episodes, then takes a few weeks to get the next batch etc...

Also the problem with completion rate is the number of people who check it out simply because it is in the top 10 and realize it is not their thing which can actually tank the number of a show that might be well received for it's genre and skew things

Also it is measured by "third party" sources. I wonder how accurate the metrics really are

 

[Usagi Pilgrim]

Actually, in things I had read, it seemed like the formula was more based on "started" and "finished" a series percentages

Anything lower than a 50% completion rate was on the chopping block almost regardless of how many started watching it

i.e. if less than half the viewers who starting watching the first episode and finished watching all the episodes is 50% or more, then it was considered for a second season

The Hidden Reason Netflix Keeps Cancelling Shows Like ‘1899’

“It’s 70% gut and 30% data…Most of it is informed hunches and intuition. Data either reinforces your worst notion or it just supports what you want to do either way.”

www.forbes.com

The secret Netflix metric that got '1899' canceled — and could ruin TV forever

There’s a secret metric Netflix doesn’t reveal, but which helps explain exactly why a show like '1899' got canceled. And it may prove Netflix’s biggest critics right about one particular issue.

www.inverse.com

Some numbers from earlier this year:

• Heartstopper had a 73% completion rate and was renewed
• The Lincoln Lawyer had a 56% completion rate and was renewed
• Resident Evil spent a good amount of time at #1, but only had a 45% completion rate and was cancelled.
• First Kill had a 44% completion rate and was cancelled.
• Squid Game had a sky-high completion rate of 87% and was obviously renewed.
• Arcane had a 60% completion rate and was renewed
• The Irregulars had a 41% completion rate and was cancelled
• Love Death and Robots had a 67% completion rate and was renewed
• Pieces of Her and Inventing Anna had 54% and 42% completion rates respectively, but both were limited series, so renewal didn’t matter.

And then, fast-forwarding to now, 1899 reportedly had a dismal 32% completion rate, according to third party sources. And it was cancelled.

I am sure that may combine with other stats, but that is what seemed to be weighted the most

It is why a lot of shows that pop into the Top 10 wind up getting cancelled. People start watching them the first few weeks but "never" finish the series

There are also a lot of people who may not finish watching or even start watching until there are at least two seasons thanks to the seeming predilection for cancelling popular shows

The problem is what kind of time frame are they talking?

I know for example with my family viewing I may start a series, then decide my wife and daughter may like this as well and stop watching until they catch up.
Sometime it is tough getting us all at the same time to watch so we may go weeks or even months before finishing a series. We tend to breeze through 3 or 4 episodes, then takes a few weeks to get the next batch etc...

Also the problem with completion rate is the number of people who check it out simply because it is in the top 10 and realize it is not their thing which can actually tank the number of a show that might be well received for it's genre and skew things

Also it is measured by "third party" sources. I wonder how accurate the metrics really are

Great info there. Thank you.

I guess that changes a bit of how I view Netflix. I remember that I was late getting into DARK, & watched the first season right when season 3 was announced. I actually held off watching season 2 until 3 premiered, just to roll right through them. I also have enjoyed ARCANE but haven't felt the need to hurry up & finish it.

I guess from here on out, I'll have to blaze through a show instead of taking the time to enjoy it at my leisure.

It also defeats my usual m.o. of waiting to see if a show gets renewed to see if it's worth my time to complete it.

 

[3Dsf]

Maybe it's time for fans to start voting with their wallets and cancelling their subscriptions.

Not really feasible, though. First, the numbers would be few and inconsequential. And second, the network execs would have no indication as to what specific show or shows you're upset about losing.

 

[Analyzer]

Great info there. Thank you.

I guess that changes a bit of how I view Netflix. I remember that I was late getting into DARK, & watched the first season right when season 3 was announced. I actually held off watching season 2 until 3 premiered, just to roll right through them. I also have enjoyed ARCANE but haven't felt the need to hurry up & finish it.

I guess from here on out, I'll have to blaze through a show instead of taking the time to enjoy it at my leisure.

It also defeats my usual m.o. of waiting to see if a show gets renewed to see if it's worth my time to complete it.

If that algorithm is indeed correct, it may actually be better to wait for a season renewal announcement if it is a series you might not make it through quickly but may like

i.e. it apparently seems that sometimes it is better to have no start vs a half watch

for example

1000 people watch episode 1, but only 500 get to episode 10

that's 50% so lets say no renewal

Now say the other 500 who only watched the first few episodes instead never started.

That is 100% now so renewal

The same number of people watched fully in both, but the non-committed drag it down

Obviously this example is very simplistic, but I think that us one of the flaws of that approach and hopefully is not the only deciding factor

 

[Mottrex]

There is at least an ending for the first season that can stand alone if necessary

It definitely opened the door big time for a second season and the story to continue, but at least there is a payoff to events in the first season, if not continuing on with the bigger picture.

I will still give it a whirl.. But all these other series keep popping up.