Variety Article: Crisis at Marvel

Indy 5’s math is much worse than that. They don’t get 100% of the box office. The studio only gets a negotiated rate per release between 40 and 60 percent of the domestic box office. And only 30 percent of international box office. Theaters take the difference.

That’s why you hear movies need to make more than double their budget (plus marketing costs) to break even.

Indy, the Flash, Mission impossible, the Marvels etc. all lost a TON of money. Way way more than “ lackluster box office “ articles would lead you to believe.
 
Your facts are in error, sir.
Then Wikipedia's and Box Office Mojo's entries for these films are as well. Those are my sources.

By the way, what's your source for the $100m marketing figure? As I understand it, marketing figures are usually guesses (hence the "double the budget" assumption folks used to make). I'm curious where you got your number.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny cost $294.7 million to produce PLUS $100 million to market, which brings us to a grand total of $394.7 million. Subtracting that from the $384 million it made worldwide from that leaves you with - $10.4 million IN THE RED.

I think we need to examine your concept of "quite popular" here if you're using a financial metric, because nearly $10.5 million in the red is not a success in any measurement I know of. And with the movie bombing that badly, I believe that the "pandering" that you claim doesn't exist is actually a relevant fact.
You're conflating "profitability" with "popularity." They aren't the same thing.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts did just shy of $439M at the box office. It was described as "underperforming." It had a budget of around $200m. John Wick 4 did $440.1M at the box office worldwide. It was described as having an "unforeseen level of commercial success." Its budget was only around $100M. They had almost identical box office performance, but by your metric, John Wick 4 was popular because it was well in the black, while Transformers Rise of the Beasts was unpopular because it underperformed.

You get how that's just...wrong, yeah? You get how it doesn't remotely support the point you think you're making, don't you?

No?

Ok, I'll put it in lemonade stand terms if you like.

Spike's Lemonade Stand makes a jug that costs him $20 to produce. He uses specially grown Meyer lemons from a lemon farm in Brazil that are flown to him daily on a private jet. He sells cups for $1 each. He sells 26 cups. Spike has netted $6.

John's Lemonade Stand makes a jug that costs him only $10 to produce. He uses lemons he bought from the local farmer's market. He sells cups for $1 each. He sells 26 cups. John has netted $16.

Meanwhile, YouTube channels that hate Meyer lemons -- and who have promoted the slogan "Buy Meyers, no buyers" -- point to Spike's profitability as evidence that their anti-Meyer-lemon rhetoric has been proven correct, and that everybody hates Meyer lemons just like they do.

But the same number of people went to each stand.

They were equally popular, just not equally profitable. And it wasn't even that the guy bought Meyer lemons that made his stand less profitable; it was that he insisted on buying them from Brasil, which jacked up his overhead. But no, the anti-Meyer brigade is convinced that people like Meyer lemons less than they like "regular" lemons.

Meanwhile, Barbara's Lemonade Stand made a jug that cost her $15 to produce, using locally grown Meyer lemons. She sold cups for $1. She sold 50 cups and netted $35, making her the most profitable Lemonade Stand that year. (The anti-Meyer folks...apparently ignore the performance of her lemonade stand, as it doesn't fit their "Buy Meyers, no buyers" rhetoric...)

Go woke, go broke.
This Barbie made $1.4B at the box office, is the #1 movie for 2023, and puts the lie to your bumper-sticker logic. You can say it as many times as you want, but wishing won't make it true, sunshine.

Margot Robbie Wink GIF by Regal
 
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Is the two arguments the films are not unpopular because x amount of people went to see them. While the other argument is I get that x amount of people went to see them but that's still half the amount of people they needed?
 
You can claim that "pandering" exists by trying to connect "Look, they talked up diversity" with "Look, the suits filed down all the edges of the story and now the characters are bland."

The thing that people have been trying to do, though, is then connect that "pandering" to box office performance, and that's where the theory just runs into a brick wall.

Again, these movies are popular. They are not universally disliked at a baseline, much less for something specific like "pandering." No movie does +$300M at the box office because people are indifferent to it or can't stand it.

The problem seems to be that the movies aren't profitable, or rather aren't profitable enough. And that has sod all to do with diversity/pandering and everything to do with film studios' goals, expectations, and business practices.

In essence, the film studios are betting on every entry in these franchises as being potential billion-dollar films. That's how they treat each of them in the development process, and it's how they support them in the pre- and post-release marketing process. But the problem is that the films aren't actually performing like billion-dollar films. They're performing like hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars films....and that's not enough for the studios. Or at least, it's not enough to justify the expenditures they made or support the development process they've adopted.

Let's step aside from Marvel for a second, and focus instead on Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. LFL's budget for the film is estimated to have been about $300M. I don't know how much was spent on marketing. It used to be that you assumed the film's budget was simply replicated in marketing costs, but I question whether Dial of Destiny saw $300M worth of marketing. Although admittedly, I don't watch TV with commercials anymore, so what do I know. Regardless, they spent $300M just making the film, a bunch more money marketing it...and it brought in $384M worldwide in box office.

By any reasonable, objective standard, $384M box off is is a crapload of money.

The problem is that they blew probably more than that amount in earning it.

Now, was that because the film dared to have a female character who was remotely competent? Was it because the film made Indy a broken shell of his former self?

Or was it maybe because the last Indy film left audiences feeling kinda blah? Or perhaps that people just don't buy the notion of a nearly-octogenarian action hero? Or maybe it's just that...the brand isn't that strong anymore and kids have no idea who Indiana Jones actually is. Orrrrr maybe it's all manner of other stuff? Economic pressures, post-COVID theater-going tendencies (or rather, stay-at-home tendencies), etc., etc.

Answer: It actually doesn't really matter a ton. Because $384M worth of box office means your movie was actually quite popular. It just wasn't $1B popular. And the reason this film is a "disappointment" is because they spent money on it as if it was going to be a $1B film...and it just wasn't. If I spent that kind of money on a project and didn't even necessarily cover my costs, hell yeah I'd be disappointed, to put it mildly. On the other hand, if I'd spent, say, $100M on making it, and made 3x that much, I'd be pretty damn happy.

Again, the numbers don't bear out the "pandering" theory in terms of box office performance. What they show is that these studios' business practices in actually making the films are idiotic and they're making billion-dollar bets waaaaay too often.
THANK YOU!

Nothing exemplifies that like BvS.....dc literally said they had to cash in now and spent 250 on the movie and 200 on marketing. Avengers had just done 1.6B and they figure just throwing sonething up would do tbe same. They had to bring in 900m to break even. I think the got 800m+. 800m is pretty damn good but they lost money because tbey bet the farm on a jackpot and lost

There is a lack of financial responsibility these days...too many things having to get 500-600 to break even. That is still a very good box office and far from guaranteed for any flick.
 
Your facts are in error, sir.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
cost $294.7 million to produce PLUS $100 million to market, which brings us to a grand total of $394.7 million. Subtracting that from the $384 million it made worldwide from that leaves you with - $10.7 million IN THE RED.

I think we need to examine your concept of "quite popular" here if you're using a financial metric, because nearly $11million in the red is not a success in any measurement I know of. And with the movie bombing that badly, I believe that the "pandering" that you claim doesn't exist is actually a relevant fact, seeing as the studio tried to pander to a non-existent "audience" for the film while alienating the fans by changing Indy to a defeated, broken shell of a man (amongst other things).

In short:

Go woke, go broke.
300 to make w 380 in box office isnt profit either. Studios get 50% of ticket sales so you need double to break even. Loss tho does NOT mean unpopular, but rather not popular enough for a profit.

If you need 800m to break even, you are betting on hitting the jackpot which is never ever guaranteed. It is very poor business decision making.
 
Is the two arguments the films are not unpopular because x amount of people went to see them. While the other argument is I get that x amount of people went to see them but that's still half the amount of people they needed?
Not exactly.

One argument is "If 40 million people go buy tickets to see a film, that's a popular film, and its profitability to the studio is a separate discussion."

The other argument is "If the studio lost money, even if 40 million people went to go see it, it wasn't popular enough to make a profit, and therefore wasn't popular." (And from there, you start getting into the reasons why, which I also think are bunk when it's a "too woke" thing, but that's going like 3 layers deep into this debate.)

Put in very simple terms, I think a popular film is one that a lot of people go to see. Period. And to get something like $300M (or more) at the box office, a whole lot of people have to go see a film. Thus, that film is, objectively, popular.

Now, whether that film is popular enough to turn a profit...is entirely dependent upon how much the studio spent to get it made. That's why I raised the examples of "underperforming" Transformers Rise of the Beasts, and "surprisingly successful" John Wick 4.

They did virtually identical box office numbers, meaning virtually the same number of people went to go see them. But one was profitable, and the other was not. I think that pretty much disproves the notion that profitability = popularity. Profitability is entirely dependent upon what the studio does to make the film. It's got nothing to do with whether people actually want to go see it.
 
Regardless of box office profits, I always find it difficult to logistically plot how $300+ million is spent on ANYTHING.
 
When a selling point for upcoming productions from the MCU and Lucasfilm have explicit reference to "Diversity, Equity and Inclusion" and when you believe that character development with writing quality have gone downhill but are also dismissed as being a "bigot, racist or h***mophobe" online just for saying so (even if you didn't bring up gender, race or sexual identity) I wouldn't fault you for suspecting some pandering to a populist ideology might be at play. Of course nothing can be proven, but you can make a substantial case for it.
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Honestly, I think the issue of “pandering” and “woke” is brought up too much. I think the fundamental issue is people are just sick of superhero movies.

It's not superhero fatigue, it's bad movie fatigue. If Marvel was still putting out things like the 2008 Iron Man, I'd still be watching. It's the fact that they're putting out crap that keeps most people away.

The MCU has had a reign of essentially 15 years from 2008 to present where pretty much every single movie and tv show is superhero-esque. While hardcore fans may love this, the casual (which is still the majority) don’t and are just sick of it now. I remember overhearing a conversation where some people were talking about getting into the MCU. Yeah apparently the superhero movies Infinity War is good right? Yeah but there are so many movies. Where do I start so I don’t get lost? Add the bloat that is the tv shows and you are just giving more “homework” for people to understand the story. Should have been obvious when there were complaints of people not understanding why Scarlet Witch was a “bad guy” in Dr Strange because they didn’t watch the tv show and there are far more now than there were back then.

No, they went from 2008 - Endgame, where the majority of their movies were very high quality and they understood what their audience wanted to see. There are a few exceptions, like Iron Man 3 and Thor 2, but mostly, they had a very good handle on audience expectations and they did everything they could to meet them. Then, right between Infinity War and Endgame, Kevin Feige decided that he was after diversity, not after telling good stories aimed at a very healthy pre-existing audience. That's when everything crashed and it has never recovered because they're still doing it.

Now yes, there are other things that they did wrong, like putting out far too much content, but that's only because they thought they couldn't lose and they've learned since that they can, and do, consistently. They took a very happy and willing fanbase and told them they weren't wanted anymore, they were going to pander to another audience that doesn't actually exist, it's just a bunch of vocal, but poor, social misfits, who aren't going to support what they do financially, no matter what. That's been Phase 4 and Phase 5 and every single movie has been a box office failure since.

I also think 15 years just took its toll. I’m sure there are more than a handful of fans that stuck it out until Endgame and just said, “alright, I’m out.” Those fans may have stuck around for Spider-Man and Guardians because those films concluded their story in a sense but I don’t think a potential Guardians 4 or Spider-Man 4 will necessarily bring in the same crowd (well maybe Spider-Man since it is one of the most popular superheroes alongside Superman and Batman).

I said I'm out at Endgame because nothing else has appealed to me, as a fan of the genre, since. If they put out something of the same quality of storytelling as Iron Man tomorrow, I'd be there, yet they aren't. Everything they have done for years has been crap. There are a few momentary blips, like Guardians 3 (Spider-Man doesn't really count since it's Sony, not Marvel), but you can just watch these train wrecks develop, with casting that is done, not because they want to hire the best actor or actress, but because they tick certain checkboxes. Far too many of those actors and actresses can't keep their damn mouths shut. Directors are out there screaming "if you don't like my movie, you're a racist!" This is just the stupidity of modern-day Hollywood. So long as that's what's going on, you are not going to see a lot of money going into the theaters because the audience can tell if the movie is being made for them and most movies these days aren't being made for an actual paying audience.

That's the problem.
 
Then Wikipedia's and Box Office Mojo's entries for these films are as well. Those are my sources.

With an estimated production budget of $294.7 million, not including marketing costs, it is the most expensive film in the Indiana Jones franchise, as well as one of the most expensive films ever made.[131][237] Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - Wikipedia

Which WIkipedia were you reading?
By the way, what's your source for the $100m marketing figure? As I understand it, marketing figures are usually guesses (hence the "double the budget" assumption folks used to make). I'm curious where you got your number.
Screenrant was my source for it:
You're conflating "profitability" with "popularity." They aren't the same thing.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts did just shy of $439M at the box office. It was described as "underperforming." It had a budget of around $200m. John Wick 4 did $440.1M at the box office worldwide. It was described as having an "unforeseen level of commercial success." Its budget was only around $100M. They had almost identical box office performance, but by your metric, John Wick 4 was popular because it was well in the black, while Transformers Rise of the Beasts was unpopular because it underperformed.
Transformers has been around much longer than John Wick, for starters. They have a fan base that stretches back much further and farther, so for them to make that amount of money is indeed a poor showing for them.

You seem to have a poor understanding of how overhead works in cinema. If it costs you 100M to make a movie and you get 440.1M in revenue, that is a success. You spend 200M to make it and get 439M in revenue, you didn't do as well.


You get how that's just...wrong, yeah? You get how it doesn't remotely support the point you think you're making, don't you?

No?
No, since your "example" is a really poor one.

Ok, I'll put it in lemonade stand terms if you like.

Spike's Lemonade Stand makes a jug that costs him $20 to produce. He uses specially grown Meyer lemons from a lemon farm in Brazil that are flown to him daily on a private jet. He sells cups for $1 each. He sells 26 cups. Indy has netted $6.

John's Lemonade Stand makes a jug that costs him only $10 to produce. He uses lemons he bought from the local farmer's market. He sells cups for $1 each. He sells 26 cups. John has netted $16.

Meanwhile, YouTube channels that hate Meyer lemons -- and who have promoted the slogan "Buy Meyers, no buyers" -- point to Spike's profitability as evidence that their anti-Meyer-lemon rhetoric has been proven correct, and that everybody hates Meyer lemons just like they do.

But the same number of people went to each stand.

They were equally popular, just not equally profitable. And it wasn't even that the guy bought Meyer lemons that made his stand less profitable; it was that he insisted on buying them from Brasil, which jacked up his overhead. But no, the anti-Meyer brigade is convinced that people like Meyer lemons less than they like "regular" lemons.

Meanwhile, Barbara's Lemonade Stand made a jug that cost her $15 to produce, using locally grown Meyer lemons. She sold cups for $1. She sold 50 cups and netted $35, making her the most profitable Lemonade Stand that year. (The anti-Meyer folks...apparently ignore the performance of her lemonade stand, as it doesn't fit their "Buy Meyers, no buyers" rhetoric...)


This Barbie made $1.4B at the box office, is the #1 movie for 2023, and puts the lie to your bumper-sticker logic. You can say it as many times as you want, but wishing won't make it true, sunshine.
Okay, now that you've acted like a complete @$$ trying to prove your point, here's what you missed:

In marketing, "popularity" is measured in financial results. How much someone likes a product is measured in how much of that product is purchased. The entire point of advertising is to get people to purchase the product.

If people do not like something, they are not going to buy it. So marketing's job is to convince them to buy it.

Got that?


As for your lemonade stand example": Barbara sold more cups than either of the other sellers, and made her money without extravagant overhead or shooting herself in the foot. More people bought her product, so even if all three were the same price, she won out with more sales. All you did was to point out how marketing can backfire when done poorly.

Not to mention: If Spike owns the lemonade stand, then how is INDY making money off it?

Guess Dial of Destiny was so bad that poor Indy went into partnership with Spike to sell lemonade? o_O

So with all of that said: since it's clear that I'm not dealing with a rational adult in speaking with you, I'm placing you back on ignore where you belong. Meanwhile, do everyone in this topic a favor and kindly take that chip on your shoulder out for a walk.

Please, don't let the door hit you in the @$$ on the way out.
 
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Screenrant was my source for it:
Ah, interesting. I hadn't seen that.
You seem to have a poor understanding of how overhead works in cinema. If it costs you 100M to make a movie and you get 440.1M in revenue, that is a success. You spend 200M to make it and get 439M in revenue, you didn't do as well.
Yeah, I'm aware that marketing costs go above the budget for development. You also haven't refuted my point, which is that if you call one film a success and another film a failure, it's based on the profitability of the film, not on its popularity.
No, since your "example" is a really poor one.



Okay, now that you've acted like a complete @$$ trying to prove your point, here's what you missed:

In marketing, "popularity" is measured in financial results. How much someone likes a product is measured in how much of that product is purchased. The entire point of advertising is to get people to purchase the product.

If people do not like something, they are not going to buy it. So marketing's job is to convince them to buy it.

Got that?


As for your lemonade stand example": Barbara sold more cups than either of the other sellers, and made her money without extravagant overhead or shooting herself in the foot. More people bought her product, so even if all three were the same price, she won out with more sales. All you did was to point out how marketing can backfire when done poorly.

Not to mention: If Spike owns the lemonade stand, then how is INDY making money off it?
Ok, here, I'll grant you, I am the victim of editing my own example and failing to catch every change I made. Initially I was looking at Dial of Destiny, when it occurred to me that we had an even better example of Transformers vs. John Wick. Apologies if the name switch was confusing. I've revised it to make the example clearer.

However...
Guess Dial of Destiny was so bad that poor Indy went into partnership with Spike to sell lemonade? o_O

So with all of that said: since it's clear that I'm not dealing with a rational adult in speaking with you, I'm placing you back on ignore where you belong. Meanwhile, do everyone in this topic a favor and kindly take that chip on your shoulder out for a walk.

Please, don't let the door hit you in the @$$ on the way out.
...you actually haven't done anything to refute my point except honed in on an editing error, and otherwise just reiterated that profitability = popularity.

It doesn't.

I mean, you can scream it from the rooftops, march up and down the street with a sign, ring a bell while waring a sandwich board chanting it, but...that's not what the word means.

What really boggles my mind here about what you wrote was that you spent a lot of time talking about how the goal of marketing is to get more people to buy more units of something (true), and that more units purchased means the product was popular (also true)...which is exactly what I was saying above, and is literally my point. And yet, you're still insisting that a film that makes more money is more popular than another film.

It isn't. Or at least, you can't automatically say that it is without also considering what was spent to produce the film.

That's why the Transformers/John Wick example is apt: they both made just about the same amount of money, which implies they both sold about the same number of tickets. In other words, they were about equally popular. But one was more profitable than the other.

Look, I get it. You need these films to be both unpopular, and unpopular for the reasons you don't like them (i.e., they're "woke" or "pandering" or whatever). But the sad fact is that...they are popular. They just aren't profitable. I will grant you that they aren't popular enough to make Marvel its money back. And they aren't as popular as past Marvel films were. No denying that. But again, none of that tracks with your "Go woke, go broke" theory, which, let's be clear, is a pile of crap disproven by the barest casual glance at ticket sales this year alone.

If we take what you yourself said, that "How much someone likes a product is measured in how much of that product is purchased," then the most liked product this year is...Barbie. An explicitly "woke" film, led by a woman, directed by a woman, advertised as such, and which is rife with messages skewering the patriarchy. Doesn't really support the whole "Go woke, go broke" notion, does it? In fact, there's zero evidence to support that theory when you look at film performance this year through the rubric of popularity that you yourself described. Most of these films sold tens of millions of tickets. They're pretty popular by that standard. Some are more popular than others (again, with woke Barbie leading the pack), but they're all pretty popular. They just aren't all as profitable, and that's because most studios keep spending on these films like they're all gonna be the next $1B film, and...they just aren't. And this is the case across the board. It's not just Marvel. LFL, Sony Pictures, Paramount, Disney (main Disney, I mean, not one of the subsidiaries), they're all spending money hand over fist, but their films aren't crossing the $500M mark in most cases. This is across genres, both in and out of franchises, etc.

This is a production problem and studios need to figure out how to get more film for their buck if they're gonna turn profits. Until they do, I think most studios will be seeing a lot of "disappointing" returns across the board.
 
The yardstick of "success" is about expectations as much as it is profits or total sales.

Look at Star Wars. If a Lucas-era SW episode had only sold $200m worth of tickets (modern dollars) then it would have been remembered as a flop. Even if George had filmed it cheaply enough to make a profit, it would still have been known as a flop by SW standards. (This is still true today, but less so because Disney has damaged the brand so badly.)

On the other hand a lot of these Oscar-bait "important" movies that the studios make have very low expectations for sales. Sometimes they are expected to lose money.


Look at Cameron's 'Titanic'. That project looked utterly doomed on paper by the time they were done filming it. The budget had ballooned up way too big. Nobody thought the public would turn out to see the director of 'Terminator' trying his hand at a 1912 costume-drama chick-flick. The only action was some big old-timey ship sinking (very slowly, on a calm sea, at night). The movie had no name stars. FFS, the whole public already knew the ending.

My point is this: The movie was EXPECTED to bomb hard, and I think it would have been ranked as good work by Cameron if it had only bombed mildly.
 
The yardstick of "success" is about expectations as much as it is profits or total sales.

Look at Star Wars. If a Lucas-era SW episode had only sold $200m worth of tickets (modern dollars) then it would have been remembered as a flop. Even if George had filmed it cheaply enough to make a profit, it would still have been known as a flop by SW standards. (This is still true today, but less so because Disney has damaged the brand so badly.)

On the other hand a lot of these Oscar-bait "important" movies that the studios make have very low expectations for sales. Sometimes they are expected to lose money.


Look at Cameron's 'Titanic'. That project looked utterly doomed on paper by the time they were done filming it. The budget had ballooned up way too big. Nobody thought the public would turn out to see the director of 'Terminator' trying his hand at a 1912 costume-drama chick-flick. The only action was some big old-timey ship sinking (very slowly, on a calm sea, at night). The movie had no name stars. FFS, the whole public already knew the ending.

My point is this: The movie was EXPECTED to bomb hard, and I think it would have been ranked as good work by Cameron if it had only bombed mildly.
Titanic was saved by preteen girls who were in love with Leo going back and watching the movie 5 times in a row. It's just one of those weird things never to be reproduced.
 
An article on Foxnews about the Variety article goes in depth on this as well:

"There’s a scene in "Endgame" that really set things in motion. Variety recalls that scene and explains the problem with "Marvels" at the same time, even if it does so inaccurately. "The all-female team-up movie makes good on the promise of ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and its six-second sequence in the fight against Thanos where all the MCU’s super-women rally behind Captain Marvel."

What Variety is explaining here as a "six-second sequence" actually was the cringiest near-minute in the first 22 movies. In the midst of a massive battle to save the earth, all of the female characters appear in the same spot to help Brie Larson’s Captain Marvel. It was a new level of pandering that was embarrassing to fans of both genders."
(more)

My point in posting this is not to go towards the political or the controversial; it's to point out that in Disney's attempts to do so, they are ruining good storytelling by pandering to a certain agenda while alienating the core audience/ fans.

From article:
And female action stars have led both the "Terminator" and "Aliens" franchises for years. It’s hard to tell who is more iconic, Linda Hamilton’s Sarah Connor or Sigourney Weaver’s Ripley. Both are beloved by the very fans who hate what Disney is doing to the MCU.

That’s because those films delivered what fans wanted – strong characters and strong action. In other words, less pandering and more fun. Disney seems incapable of any of that.

When you ignore and deliberately turn against the people whose appreciation and purchases made these franchises possible, you basically burn down that franchise. Some folks like to pretend that "sales have nothing to do with how much someone likes something"; my question to them is: do you deliberately buy what you hate?

We all know that no one does that of their own free will, especially in this economy. But the pro-Disney crowd would have you believe otherwise apparently. And that seems to stem from a certain desperation born of the fact that Disney/ Marvel movies are sinking and the metrics prove it, no matter how hard anyone tries to deny it.
 
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My point in posting this is not to go towards the political or the controversial; it's to point out that in Disney's attempts to do so, they are ruining good storytelling by pandering to a certain agenda while alienating the core audience/ fans.

That's really where you have to talk about the politics. Not the politics themselves, but politics as a mechanism for pandering, which is exactly what's going on. It wouldn't matter if it was right-wing politics that a company was using, it has the same results. This is just politics as a weapon and it is killing good movies that ought to exist just as entertainment.
 

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